The Worry Reducer
(Thanks to Kahnemann and Twersky)
An heuristic for lessening the impact of paranoia on prediction.
©1999 Edward G. Rozycki
A: Conceptualize the worry in terms of the following formula:
Event C (cue) portends D (disaster).
B: Describe the two linked events, i.e. the Cue and the Disaster
Describe D:
Working backwards from D to C, describe intervening events necessary to the following event.For example use the following formula to conceptualize the relation:
☞Unless (this link), then (following link) will not happen.
Fill in the chart:
• Link 1. __________________________________________________________
• Link 2 __________________________________________________________
• Link 3 __________________________________________________________
• Link 4 __________________________________________________________
☠Disaster __________________________________________________________
A: Fill in the following chart. Give probabilities as a decimal from 0 to 1.
Event 
Probability 
TK Probability 












Pd = 
B: Multiply the preceding probabilities of column 3 to yield probability (Pd) of D, given C. Fill in blanks below:
(D)__________________________ is at best (Pd)________.