The Worry Reducer
(Thanks to Kahnemann and Twersky)

An heuristic for lessening the impact of paranoia on prediction.

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edited 4/5/12
PART I: Describing the worry

A: Conceptualize the worry in terms of the following formula:

Event C (cue) portends D (disaster).

B: Describe the two linked events, i.e. the Cue and the Disaster

Describe C:

Describe D:

Part 2: Generating a Chain of Four Intermediate Links.

Working backwards from D to C, describe intervening events necessary to the following event.For example use the following formula to conceptualize the relation:

Fill in the chart:

• Cue __________________________________________________________

Disaster __________________________________________________________

Part 3: Calculate the Probability of D, given C

A: Fill in the following chart. Give probabilities as a decimal from 0 to 1.

The TK probability is a multiplication of the column 2 probability by one-half, if the event affects you or a loved one personally.
 Column 1 Event Column 2: Probability Column 3: TK Probability Cue 1.0 Link 1 Link 2 Link 3 Link 4 Disaster Pd =

B: Multiply the preceding probabilities of column 3 to yield probability (Pd) of D, given C. Fill in blanks below:

Although (C)________________________________, the probability that

(D)__________________________ is at best (Pd)________.

So, let's drink a _____________ to that and STOP WORRYING!                         choice of beverage

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