Hypothesizing Exercise 8: a risky decision?
©2003 Edward G. Rozycki
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edited 9/25/04
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HYPOTHESIZING
EXERCISES
Wilson University President Mila Sharp is away on sabbatical when the worst snowstorm of the decade swoops down on campus at 11 AM. The three vice presidents, equal in rank, are besieged with requests to close the University early and cancel evening classes. VP Simmons wants to wait to see how bad it gets. VP Harris thinks the governor might declare a snow emergency. Only VP Sanders, arguing that graduate students in the professional schools need to know early, presses for closing. When the other two VP's shy away from making a decision, he takes it on his own to announce the closing of the University.
Student Instructions
A. Formulate several hypotheses as to why there was hesitation about making a decision to close the University and why Sanders finally acted alone.
B. Can you combine two or more hypotheses within a more powerful hypothesis?
C. For each hypothesis determine what information you would need to disconfirm its competitors.
D. You will be given additional information. Use it to rule out some of the hypothetical alternatives.
Additional Information (to be supplied by Instructor)
A. Sanders is 65 years old. He has been in his position for 6 years. Sharp is 60 and has been President for 8 years.
B. Summer school begins immediately after Spring semester.
C. Simmons and Harris are both 40 years old. Both have been VPs for about 5 years.
D. When the University closes down, there are some 1500 undergraduates housed on campus with time on their hands.
E. Graduate students tend to be long-distance commuters.
Additional Questions (to be answered after all information is in)
1. What would the Head of Campus Security choose to do, if she had the authority?
2. With which VP might President Sharp have agreed ?
3. What difference would it make if the Governor had declared a state of emergency?
4. What does this anecdote tell you about a career in administration?
5. Which VP is least likely to decide to close the University?