Hypothesizing Exercise 7: Surprise Search
©2003 Edward G. Rozycki
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edited 9/23/04
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HYPOTHESIZING
EXERCISES
After several months of escalating gang violence in the neighborhood, the principal of Madison High School has the police conduct a surprise yet thorough search for weapons late in the school day. Those found with weapons -- mostly knives -- hidden in their book bags or on their person tend to be among the best students academically.
Student Instructions
A. Formulate several hypotheses as to why those caught carrying weapons tended to be the academically more talented students.
B. Can you combine two or more hypotheses within a more powerful hypothesis?
C. For each hypothesis determine what information you would need to disconfirm its competitors.
D. You will be given additional information. Use it to rule out some of the hypothetical alternatives.
Additional Information (to be supplied by Instructor)
A. The suspension rate at Madison is not significantly higher than the system average.
B. State funding for the school district is based on average daily attendance.
C. The average yearly family income for Madison students is $8000.
D. Madison students are members of a variety of ethnic groups, including many recent immigrants. Many students work as well as go to school.
E. Teacher absenteeism is higher than most other high schools in the system.
F. Built for 900 students, Madison has 1600 on roll.
Additional Questions (to be answered after all information is in)
1. Has the average age of teachers at Madison been rising or falling?
2. Given that the principal is ambitious, has she been at Madison long?
3. Will weapons searches reduce the threat felt by many students?
4. Is there a student attendance problem at Madison?
5. What is the dilemma the principal finds herself in?