Hypothesizing Exercise 13: avoiding evaluation
©2003 Edward G. Rozycki
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edited 9/23/04
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HYPOTHESIZING
EXERCISES
In response to great public concern, the Synecdoche School District in conjunction with Synecdoche State University, launches a coordinated program expanding formerly perfunctory efforts in the areas of sex education and conflict resolution. The SEXCON program, as it is called, receives substantial private and governmental support. Two years later, Professor Dwight Ogenes of Synecdoche State undertakes a research program to evaluate SEXCON. He is dismayed at the resistance he encounters at all levels to obtaining basic data. He is strongly advised to accept a special grant for a more restricted study with travel far afield of his original undertaking.
Student Directions
A. Why can't Ogenes get the data he needs? Devise several competing hypotheses.
B. Can you combine two or more hypotheses within a more powerful hypothesis?
C. For each hypothesis determine what information you would need to disconfirm its competitors.
D. You will be given additional information. Use it to rule out some of the hypothetical alternatives.
Additional Information (to be supplied by Instructor)
A. SEXCON advocates believe it will take at least five years for it to show results.
B. Next year is an election year.
C. Ogenes had only asked for pre-SEXCON statistics to begin his research.
D. Ogenes' brother-in-law is running for the School Board.
E. Ogenes is respected in his field as a researcher.
Additional Questions (to be answered after all information is in)
1. Sketch a model for evaluating SEXCON's effectiveness. What data must you have?
2. What might be an indicator of SEXCON's success?
3. Which parties are concerned with either the success or failure of SEXCON? Why?
4. Who is most likely supporting Ogenes' alternative grant offer?