The So-Called Dropout ÒCrisesÓ


by Gary K. Clabaugh, Ed. D.


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ÒThis is a problem we canÕt afford to accept or ignore. The stakes are too high Ð for our children, for our economy, for our country. ItÕs time for all of us to come together Ð parents and students, principals and teachers, business leaders and elected officials Ð to end AmericaÕs dropout crisis.Ó -- Barrack Obama, 2010 Speech

 

Like Chief Executives before him, President Obama urges elimination of the school dropout Òcrisis.Ó But here are some questions that first need to be answered:

         1. Is the present dropout rate a Òcrisis?Ó

         2. How would a further dropout reduction most likely be achieved?    

         3. Will a further dropout reduction affect the diplomaÕs value?

         4. Who pays the highest price for diploma proliferation?

         5. Are U.S. well-being and school dropouts tightly linked?

         6. What might make schooling more attractive to disaffected kids?


Is The Present Dropout Rate a Crisis?


No, not necessarily. A high dropout or fail rate often indicates elite status. For instance, between 75 and 80 % of Navy SEAL candidates fail or drop out of training. This certainly isnÕt a Òcrisis,Ó but an indication of how hellishly demanding the training really is.

  Why, then, is a 7% school dropout rate a crisis? IsnÕt it really an indication of excessively low standards?

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Navy SEALS Training U.S. Navy File Photo

 


How Would A Dropout Reduction Most Likely Be Achieved?


The easiest, and most likely, way to lower the dropout rate is to make graduation easier. Then educators donÕt have to struggle with the dozens of issues, in school and out, that cause dropouts. ÒCut thirty percent of your classes, did you? Well, we still want you to graduate.Ó ÒCanÕt read? Well, weÕre not going to let that stand in the way of your graduation.Ó Think this is an exaggeration? If so, you are apparently unfamiliar with what is actually required to graduate from many of todayÕs more troubled high schools.

 

One advantage of this approach is that the diploma loses what little remains of its job getting power. If nearly everyone has one, it no longer guarantees much of anything to a prospective employer. A diploma should at least be a reasonably reliable indicator that the possessor will show up for work, not be a behavior problem, be able to read and to solve work related math problems. With the hand-them-out-wholesale approach, that usefulness evaporates.



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How many of these graduates actually deserve their diploma?
Google Photo

Will a further dropout reduction affect the diplomaÕs value?

LetÕs imagine that educators assiduously avoid any compromises and, by means of a pedagogical miracle akin to raising Lazarus from the dead, graduate 100% of their students with a full compliment of basic skills. What happens then? Their diplomas would have even less value as a job market tool. Diplomas have positional value. In general, their worth depends on their scarcity.[1]



The value of many things depends on their scarcity: beauty, smarts, Ferraris, great sex, gold, sapphires, U.S. currency, and so forth. Consider, for instance, what would happen if diamonds were as common as quartz. (The second most common mineral in the earthÕs continental crust.) Their worth would be minimal. They might even be a nuisance. ÒI would have had that foundation dug a week ago if it wasnÕt for those damned diamond deposits!Ó



 

The same scarcity rule applies to diplomas and their job getting power. The more of them there are, the less job-getting value they have. Put in historic perspective, in 1910 only 13% of Americans 25 and older possessed a high school diploma. Today 88% do, and about 30 % also have a bachelors or higher degree.[2] ThatÕs a key reason why the diplomaÕs job getting power has diminished over the years.

 

Of course a high school diploma can have other than job market value. It might be a source of personal and familial pride, for instance. But not when they are handed out willy-nilly.

 

Who pays the highest price for diploma proliferation?


Individuals who have secured a diploma but cannot, or do not, go on to college are especially penalized as diplomaÕs proliferate, That is because it is the only education credential they have to help them qualify for those all-important job interviews.

 

These days diplomas have become so common their job market value has diminished to mere defensive utility. Should you have one it no longer conveys much advantage; but should you lack one it has become a major disadvantage.

 

Actually, it might be better in the aggregate if there were more dropouts and fewer diplomas were awarded. Greater scarcity would boost their job getting power and their personal value. But that option is not even being considered.

 

Is U.S. wellbeing tightly linked to the school dropout rate?


Some politicians would have us believe, perhaps even believe themselves, that great things will happen if another 4 or 5% of kids graduate from high school. Perhaps they think that a greater percentage of high school graduates will equal more available skills, more skills will equal improved international competitiveness, and that improved competitiveness will equal a higher standard of living for all.

 

This is bunk. Think back to when JapanÕs economy was booming and ours was struggling. We were solemnly told that JapanÕs advantage was largely due to superior schooling. Poorly schooled American workers just couldnÕt compete with their better-schooled Japanese counterparts.

 

That, for example, was supposed to be why Japanese made cars were so much better than American made. But when Japanese carmakers opened plants in the U.S., their American made cars remained much better than the domestic brands. The problem, it seems, wasnÕt poorly schooled American workers, but less competent American managers.

 

AmericaÔs lack of economic competitiveness is only loosely linked to schooling and still more loosely linked to our school dropout rate. Many things matter a great deal more. But rich and powerful individuals control these things. So the teachers get blamed instead. As is wisely, if vulgarly, said, ÒShit rolls down hill!

 

What might make schooling more attractive to potential dropouts?


We could improve the appeal of a high school education for many potential dropouts, but it would require radical changes in how secondary schooling is structured. We could, for example, allow such kids to transition to job-based apprenticeships closely linked to supporting academics.

 

Of course this transformation would require major commitments, investments and concessions from public, corporate and trade union leaders. So we might well ask, who among them will be willing to absorb these costs when finger pointing, crocodile tears and solemn hand wringing suffice?

 

Summing Up


Politicians who urge an end to the dropout ÒcrisisÓ seem not to have given the matter much serious thought. Either that or their solemn lamentations are a red herring that draws attention away from the destruction of the hearts and minds of millions of American children by the social evils these very same politicians sometimes aid and abet.

 

These social cancers include, but are not limited to: unrestrained greed, metastasizing inequality, a 20% child poverty rate, 1.5 million kids with a parent in prison, and the Òunwarranted influenceÓ and Òmisplaced powerÒ of the Òmilitary-industrial complexÓ that President Eisenhower warned of.[3]

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The U. S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world.

 

Public officials can impose high stakes tests, hold educators Òaccountable,Ó replace public schools with privately managed charters and establish a national core curriculum; but educational outcomes will not much improve until America is much improved.

 

For more on this see: ÒIdentifying the "At Risk" Student: What is the Concern?Ó http://www.newfoundations.com/EGR/AtRisk.html

 

--- GKC Nov 2014



[1] Dissecting School Benefits: a typology of conflicting goals: On what basis should school personnel be evaluated? http://www.newfoundations.com/EdBen.html

 

[2] Percentage of persons age 25 and over and of persons 25 to 29 years old with high school completion or higher and a bachelor's or higher degree, by race ethnicity and sex. Selected years, 1910 through 2011, What might make schooling more attractive for disaffected kids?http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d11/tables/dt11_008.asp

[3] This is what President Eisenhower prophetically warned of in his famed Farewell Address.